The new modelling was undertaken pre-COVID-19 but the degrowth pathways are based on a fraction of global GDP shrinkage of some 4.2 percent experienced in the first six months of the pandemic. Degrowth also focuses on structural social change to make wellbeing independent from economic growth.
“We can still satisfy peoples’ needs, maintain employment and reduce inequality with degrowth, which is what distinguishes this pathway from recession,” Mr Keyßer says.
“However, a just, democratic and orderly degrowth transition would involve reducing the gap between the haves and have-nots, with more equitable distribution from affluent nations to nations where human needs are still unmet – something that is yet to be fully explored.”
A “degrowth” society could include:
- A shorter working week, resulting in reduced unemployment alongside increasing productivity and stable economic output.
- Universal basic services independent of income, for necessities i.e. food, health care, transport.
- Limit maximum income and wealth, enabling a universal basic income to be increased and reducing inequality, rather than increasing inequality as is the current global trend.
Among the 1.5°C degrowth pathways explored in the new research, the Decent Living Energy (DLE) scenario – providing decent living globally with minimum energy – is closest to historical trends for renewable energy and negligible ‘negative emissions’. Mr Keyßer says the International Energy Agency projections for renewables growth to 2050 based on past trends are roughly equivalent to the DLE pathway modelled.
“That non-fossil energy sources could meet ‘decent living energy’ requirements while achieving 1.5°C – under conditions close to business-as-usual – is highly significant,” Mr Keyßer says.
